Abstract Using administrative tax records for UK businesses, we document both bunching in annual turnover below the VAT registration threshold and persistent voluntary registration by almost half of the firms below the threshold. We develop a conceptual framework that can simultaneously explain these two apparently conflicting facts. The framework also predicts that higher intermediate input shares, lower product-market competition and a lower share of business to consumer (B2C) sales lead to voluntary registration. The predictions are exactly the opposite for bunching. We test the theory using linked VAT and corporation tax records from 2004-2014, finding empirical support for these predictions.

Abstract The introduction of prenatal sex-detection technologies in India has led to a phenomenal increase in abortion of female fetuses. We examine fertility and investment responses to these technologies. We find a moderation of son-biased fertility stopping, erosion of gender gaps in parental investments, and convergence in the under-5 mortality rates of boys and girls. For every three aborted girls, one additional girl survives to age five. We also find a shift in the distribution of girls towards low-socioeconomic status families. Our findings have implications not only for counts of missing girls but also for the later life outcomes of girls.

Abstract We analyse discretionary fiscal responses to the Covid-19 pandemic. We distinguish policies for three phases of the pandemic: (1) acute overall disruption, (2) initial recovery phase and (3) the longer term. We analyse measures already taken in (1) and consider measures relevant for (2). We distinguish between lump-sum subsidies, such as deferral of tax payments, which may ease financial constraints, and measures which intentionally affect incentives. We also identify factors that are important given the short-term nature of the measures.

Abstract We examine how intercity road connection affects the policy choices of local governments, using the construction of China’s national expressway as a natural experiment. We show that peripheral counties reduced the level of spending and changed the spending composition since the expressway connection. They became less involved in spending competition, increased the effective tax rate on private firms, and slowed down the privatization of state-owned firms. These results are consistent with the view that mobile capital tends to relocate from peripheral areas to core regions with a lower trade cost. We further show that such changes in government policies contribute significantly to the output decline in these regions after the expressway connection.

Abstract We study how UK property tax rates impact commercial vacancies and rents, using new data, and exploiting exogenous variations in two major property tax reliefs, small business relief and retail relief. We estimate that both reliefs are effective at achieving their objectives. A given monetary relief per property will lead to a bigger reduction in vacancies for eligible properties if given via retail relief, because small business relief is targeted only at small businesses. Small business relief has a bigger effect in clusters of urban properties, while both reliefs are more effective in reducing retail vacancies in less deprived areas.

Abstract The British colonial government raised the minimum age at first marriage of females to 14 years in British India in 1929. The law had two distinct features: it was announced in 1929 but implemented six months later in 1930, and the law applied to only British India, which was directly ruled by the British government but not to Princely States (Indian Native States), which were under their indirect control. Using Princely States in colonial India as a control group, we employ difference-in-differences strategy to estimate the causal impact of the abolition of child marriage on underage female marriage in regions that were affected by the law. Analyzing historical census data from 1911-1931, we find an immediate unintended anticipation effect of the law that increased female child marriages in the affected regions in 1931, followed by a sharp decline of female child marriages in the affected region post-independence in 1961-1981. We further use three independent nationally representative datasets on female education and marriage to show that there was a long term decline in child marriages and increase in educational attainment among women in affected regions.

Abstract We develop novel estimates of peak and off-peak price elasticities for urban mass transit demand in San Francisco using a large natural experiment with 3.6 million trip sessions and a natural field experiment that both have exogenous price subsidies. We then estimate the welfare impacts for these price subsidies using a sufficient statistics approach. Our analysis suggests that off-peak subsidies can increase welfare, but the positive effects are reduced when consumers take the decisions of others into account compared to when they do not. We also find a large variation in the welfare impacts of shifting travel to different periods, which is explained by differences in demand and congestion characteristics. Finally, we show that the targeting of subsidies can increase welfare, but need not do so if the regulator does not have accurate information on demand.

Abstract This paper studies the effect of the VAT threshold on firm growth in the UK, using administrative tax data, and exogenous variation over time in the threshold, combined with turnover bin fixed effects, for identification. We find that annual growth in turnover slows by up to 2 p.p. points (almost one third of the average growth rate of 7 p.p. in our data) when firm turnover gets close to the threshold, and this growth slowdown persists for levels of turnover close to, and above the threshold. Growth in firm costs shows a similar pattern, indicating that the response to the threshold is likely to be a real response rather than an evasion response. Firms that select into the Flat-Rate Scheme have a less pronounced slowdown response than other firms. Similar patterns of turnover and cost growth around the threshold are also observed for non-incorporated businesses. Finally, simulation results clarify the relative contribution of ``crossers" (firms who eventually register for VAT) and ``non-crossers" (those who permanently stay below the threshold) in explaining our empirical findings.